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“We have just days to stop Reform and make hope normal again” are the words of Hannah Spencer, the Mancunian plumber, councillor, and now Green Party candidate for the byelection in Gorton and Denton. She was selected by her local party members last Thursday to fight for the former seat of ex-Labour MP and health minister Andrew Gwynne. He was expelled from his party in February 2025 over his messages in the typically named ‘Trigger me Timbers’ WhatsApp group of local Labour figures.

Gwynne resigned his seat on medical grounds on the 22^nd of January, starting a byelection campaign which Labour wanted to avoid at all costs. It was surprising then, that just four days later, their NEC (National Executive Committee) would vote 8-1 to block the beloved Greater Manchester Mayor, Andy Burnham, from standing in the contest.

Burnham, the most popular Labour Politician in the country, has long sought a parliamentary seat – thought to allow him to challenge the Prime Minister for Labour leadership. The NEC vote, supposedly barring Burnham on the grounds of “an unnecessary election for the position of Greater Manchester mayor” is widely seen as an attempt to preserve the Labour right, under threat by a more left-wing candidate who may pressure the path of the government.

Why Starmer’s allies believe that the government should continue down their current policy agenda is anyone’s guess, but their trend towards self-harm generally comes from a desire to maintain influence at the cost of even their own electoral chances. Their desire to turn Labour from its origins as a democratic socialist party, founded within the Trade Union movement, into an amalgamation of centre right economic and social policies is apparently worth losing a former Labour safe seat to Farage’s goons in Reform UK.

Although, it is not the fascist party (currently outperforming Labour by 9 points in nationwide polls) that Starmer is worried about. It’s Zack Polanski’s Greens that they have claimed is an “existential risk”. Labour seems more worried about being outflanked on the left than the damage that yet another Reform MP would cause. All while simultaneously offering nothing to bring disillusioned left-wing voters back.

The Green Party believes they have a strong chance at winning the seat, with the betting markets agreeing. Though they will have to put up a significant effort in order to do so. Opinion polling in the constituency offers little insight (one FindOutNow poll from 26^th-27^th January offered a sample size of just 143 people) but it would be wrong to underestimate their chances of victory. In a seat with a significantly left-wing voter base, the Greens are certainly a force to be reckoned with, even if Deputy PM Powell claims that “the Greens can’t win here”.

They’ll want to draw on the successes of Plaid Cymru who were successful in ousting Labour and beating away a well-funded Reform campaign in Caerphilly’s Senedd byelection last October. The Greens agree that they must “cement this narrative” of Labour’s pattern of failures. Starmer’s party believes that their strategy of ‘we’re not Reform’ can win them this contest; the Greens must prove that this is a tired failure of a strategy. It didn’t work for the Democrats in 2024, and it won’t work for Labour in 2026. 

Reform seems to be making it easier for the Greens too, selecting Matthew Goodwin, a failed academic and current GB News presenter who claimed that “It takes more than a piece of paper to make somebody ‘British’”. A confusing statement to stand by, considering that, according to census data, 44% of the population of Gorton and Denton identify as coming from a minority ethnic background (with 79% identifying as British).

Goodwin is clearly not the strongest orator. Especially considering that, last year, he stumbled in a discussion with Novara Media’s Aaron Bastani over whether ‘Britain First’ included ‘putting the country’s interests before those of Israel’. A similar inability to defend their claims seems to be reflected across the Reform party. Indeed, you may remember council leader George Finch’s event at Warwick in January – resulting in tirades and off topic ‘anti-woke’ remarks from the councillor when he was challenged regarding his actions in local government.

To add further fuel to the Reform dumpster fire, Lee Anderson posted an image to his own social media showing him kicking off Reform’s campaign in the wrong constituency. Perhaps then, the Greens have little to worry about (even through Labour’s bad faith attacks on their national drugs policy and misspelt campaign launch poster).

There has been some discussion about the normalisation of racism in British politics following Goodwin’s selection, but this must be seen to be believed. In the result of a Green or Labour victory, voters will have once again rejected Reform’s racism as they did in Caerphilly. Proving that bigoted voices form only a loud minority of opinion in the UK. 

There too is little to suggest that the country is becoming more sympathetic to the right-wing, with numerous polls backing up the fact that younger generations overwhelmingly reject their hateful brand of politics. Indeed, no more than 9% of 18–24-year-olds support Reform with the Greens a clear favourite amongst younger voters. Perhaps Gen Z have awoken to the failures of capitalism amongst the sheer impossibility of owning a home, ever-increasing rents and the underpaying and under-hiring job market.

While the Greens are certainly not revolutionary, they are undoubtedly the party best equipped to represent this growing opinion. This is at least until the launch of the ever-embattled Your Party once they have elected their unique collective leadership.

It is an impossibility to predict what will happen next in this increasingly fragmented era of British politics, but the left clearly have the momentum behind them; something the Greens can prove by winning in Gorton and Denton on the 26^th. The country will be waiting; the question now is whether they are up to the challenge.